[SMM Metal Morning reference] Metal rises and falls are mixed | Silicon metal prices have reached new highs repeatedly | the output of stainless steel has been greatly reduced due to the double control of energy consumption.

SMM Morning Review

Summary of SMM Steel Morning meeting: according to SMM tracking data, a total of 58 ships arrived at China's main ports from 8.30 to 9.5, and the incoming cargo volume is expected to be 9.48 million tons, which is 2.55 million tons lower than that of the previous period and 4.62 million tons lower than that of the same period last year. During the period, Australia's port departure decreased by 270000 tons to 17.26 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons over the same period last year, while Brazil's port departure increased by 260000 tons to 6.12 million tons, a decrease of 1.48 million tons over the same period last year. A sharp decline in the volume of imported ore to Hong Kong may have a small boost to mineral prices, but in the context of domestic reduction and production restrictions, steel mills are still cautious about purchasing raw materials.

[summary of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] the raw material end is strongly oscillated and the black series is running in a narrow range.

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The market closed overnight.

The dollar rose on Tuesday, further away from the near-one-month low it hit on Friday because of weak jobs data, as higher US bond yields prompted investors to cut short positions in the dollar against the euro ahead of this week's ECB meeting. The dollar rose for a second day in a row, putting pressure on the metals market, with aluminum futures falling on the strength of the dollar yesterday, but still close to a 10-year high. By the close, aluminum rose 0.02%, zinc rose 0.65%, copper fell 0.24%, nickel fell 0.28%, Lunxi fell 2.32%, and lun lead fell 0.09%.

The strengthening of the US dollar for two consecutive days put pressure on the domestic market, with only aluminum and zinc rising slightly. The latest zinc ingot inventory announced on September 7th showed a small demise, forming a certain support for zinc prices, but with the restorative growth of domestic production in September, the superimposed dumping and storage source is about to pick up, SMM expects the short-term zinc price shock pattern to be difficult to break.

"[overnight market] Metals are mixed | Gold plunged $30 to break through the 1800 mark.

U. S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow closing down more than 260 points. The market is worried that the accelerated spread of the new Guandalta variant will hinder the economic growth of the United States. A number of agencies have downgraded their forecasts for the US economy.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices fell on Tuesday, dragged down by the strength of the dollar and concerns about weak demand in the United States and Asia, but strong economic indicators in China and continued disruptions in crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States have provided some support to oil prices, limiting the decline of crude oil.

In precious metals, COMEX gold fell below $1800 on Tuesday, the biggest one-day drop in nearly a month, as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on demand for precious metals.

Today, the Fed will release a beige book, and investors will look for clues to inflationary pressures and labor market tensions. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decisions and issue a statement on monetary policy decisions, which will provide further guidance to the euro, which has continued to strengthen recently. On Friday, the United States will release August CPI data to see if inflationary pressures have eased.

Today, the macro aspect focuses on the data such as the scale of social financing and the annual rate of M2 money supply in China in August.

"[macro outlook] Today, focus on the scale of social financing in China in August and the annual rate of M2 money supply.

LME inventory

Macro focus

[U.S. president Joe Biden declared a federal state of emergency in New Jersey and New York] U.S. president Joe Biden issued a statement on September 6 local time, declaring a federal state of emergency in New Jersey and New York. Biden's announcement means that the two states have access to federal disaster relief funds after flooding hit the two states due to torrential rains caused by Tropical Storm Ida.

Liu Lei, secretary of the party committee of the China Association of listed companies: the performance of listed companies has gradually returned to the growth track before the epidemic. Liu Lei, secretary of the party committee and executive vice president of the China Association of listed companies, said at the meeting that judging from this year's semi-annual report, the total number of domestic listed companies has reached 4386, with a total market capitalization of about 87 trillion yuan, ranking firmly in the second largest stock market in the world. In the same period, more than 70% of non-financial listed companies achieved net profit growth compared with the first half of 2020, and the performance of listed companies has gradually returned to the growth track before the epidemic. It is worth noting that the number of non-financial listed companies with a net profit of more than 10 billion yuan has increased from 14 in the same period last year to 25 this year.

[pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank: the space for monetary policy in China is relatively large.] Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank, said that there is a relatively large space for monetary policy in China, which is the main gap between China's monetary policy and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other major economies since the beginning of 2000.

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: electricity consumption of small and micro enterprises increased by 15.1% in July compared with the same period last year] at the regular policy briefing of the State Council on September 7, Tian Yulong, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that on the whole, the production efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises has returned to growth since 2021, and the operation has continued to improve. According to statistics, from January to July, the operating income and total profits of small and medium-sized industrial enterprises increased by 26.4% and 43.9% respectively compared with the same period last year.

[fire broke out on several ferry lines caused by strong winds in Greece] on September 6, local time, strong winds occurred in most parts of the Aegean Sea in Greece, with instantaneous winds reaching force 9, causing several ferry lines to shut down. According to reports, on the same day, all ferries sailing from the port of Lafina in the northeastern suburb of Athens to Tinos Island, Mykonos Island and Naxos Island were suspended; ferry services from Piraeus Port in the western suburbs of Athens to Siros Island, Tinos Island and Mykonos Island were also suspended. In addition, strong winds caused fires in many parts of Greece.

Today's focus

On the macro side, China's trade account in August was higher than the previous value and forecast, and continued to grow since April 2020, which is basically in line with market expectations. The final value of the quarterly adjusted economic data of the major euro zone countries is released as the basic compound forecast. There are no big data on the macro side today, but fundamentally, customs data released today show that imports of unwrought copper and copper materials were 394017 tons in August, down 7 percent from July and the fifth consecutive month of decline. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Malaysia imports scrap aluminum standards to improve the impact of domestic imports of scrap aluminum] Malaysia for imported scrap metal standards tightened, including the following import standards, its implementation time was postponed to October 31st. In this regard, SMM believes that it has little impact on the domestic waste aluminum market and has a certain impact on imported waste aluminum, but its small quantity can also seek alternative sources of regional waste aluminum. "check the details.

[SMM lead brief Review: short sellers try Shanghai lead again to end two Lianyang] the spot price of lead ingots fell during the day, but the market trading was dismal, the enthusiasm of smelters to ship goods was low, and there was not much spot in circulation. At night, we still need to pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can continue to rebound in the afternoon to make up for the rise, and hold the first-line support level of 14850 yuan / ton. "View details

[SMM survey: the impact of regional power cuts gradually slowed down. Electrolytic zinc production decreased by more than 6000 tons in August.] SMM China's refined zinc production in August 2021 was 508900 tons, a decrease of 6300 tons or 1.22 percent, a decrease of 0.04 percent over the same period last year, and a cumulative output of 4.042 million tons from January to August in 2021, an increase of 4.47 percent over the same period last year. Among them, the sample alloy output of domestic refining zinc smelters in August was 75500 tons, an increase of 80 tons compared with the previous month. In September, the production of refineries in Yunnan is stable, and the impact of power cuts is limited. In addition, some enterprises in Yunnan have been informed that there are no power restrictions before September 10. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: zinc alloy factory costs rise or set off a wave of price rise] due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the production cost of die-casting alloy enterprises continues to increase, which has caused great pressure on the production and operation of enterprises. Recently, die-casting zinc alloy enterprises began to increase alloy processing fees. Since the beginning of this year, the price of non-ferrous metals has expanded, the prices of copper and aluminum have repeatedly reached record highs, and the price of zinc has also remained high. "View details

[SMM tin brief review: Shanghai-tin shock is still in the lower part of the range along the funds prudent maintenance of intra-day strategy] from the fundamental point of view, spot transactions are relatively stable, feedback from part of the smelter production data, upstream production slightly reduced, but the import window opening and export closure can make up for the reduction in domestic production, in the short term, both supply and demand are in balance. "check the details.

[SMM Nickel brief Review: Shanghai Nickel shock Down stainless Steel fell slightly] the US dollar index warmed up, non-ferrous metals were mixed, LME fluctuated downwards during the day, ss2110 contracts fell slightly, and Shanghai Nickel followed strongly. Stainless steel production restriction policy may reduce nickel demand, negative nickel price, but the fundamental nickel supply gap still exists, in the short term nickel price or maintain consolidation. "View details

[SMM analysis: where does the production of dual-controlled stainless steel not exceed the total output of last year under the limit of the operating rate of each region? According to SMM research, national stainless steel production in August totaled about 2.815 million tons, down 103000 tons from July, down 3.53 percent from the previous month, and up 2.19 percent from the same period last year. The cumulative total output of stainless steel from January to August in 2021 is about 22.527 million tons, an increase of 22.65% over the same period last year. According to SMM statistics, the total output of stainless steel in 2020 is about 29.8708 million tons, while the cumulative total output from January to August in 2021 is about 22.5503 million tons. "check the details.

[SMM exclusive: electric furnace operating rate dropped 2. 73% month-on-month this week.] according to SMM's survey of 34 independent electric arc furnace steel mills producing building materials, the operating rate was 67.52% as of Sept. 7, down 2.73% from last week. In the current cycle (8-31-9-7) the thread price is fluctuating as a whole. As of today, the national average price is 5316.5 yuan / ton, up 98.3 yuan / ton from August 31. "check the details.

[SMM Coke spot Daily Review: steel mills are expected to reduce the demand for coke but the spot is still tight] Today, the domestic coke market is stable and strong. The supervision and inspection of environmental protection is more stringent, and the production restriction of coke enterprises in Shandong is more serious. Six coke enterprises in Jining, Heze and Tai'an have stewed stoves, while the other coke enterprises have limited production by more than 50%. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi actively limit production because of low profits. The overall supply of coke is still tight, and now the production of coke enterprises is more active, the sales situation is better, and there is basically no inventory pressure. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: recent power limit and production limit document summary whether high chromium production can be maintained] since July, due to the peak of summer power consumption and the low willingness of power plants with high coal prices, Inner Mongolia has a huge power gap, the output of high-carbon ferrochromium is limited, stainless steel profits are good, the production schedule for July and August is higher, the demand for ferrochromium is high, supply is in short supply, and the price of high-carbon ferrochromium is soaring. Recently, the environmental protection inspection team has inspected the whole country, and the news of power restriction and production restriction is frequent in various places. although ferrochromium has a high profit in the near future and the iron factory has a good intention to produce, policy factors have become the main reason for affecting the production of high-carbon ferrochromium enterprises in the near future. "View details

[SMM Electrolytic Manganese Daily Review: manganese prices are expected to be stable and weak waiting for overseas steel pricing] SMM on Sept. 7, the spot factory price of electrolytic manganese in the manganese triangle and Guangxi fell 150-200 yuan / ton from Monday's average price around 30000-30500 yuan / ton; today's FOB quotation as a whole is stable around 4800-5000 US dollars / ton than Monday's average price. Yesterday, Posco, South Korea, opened a bidding plan for electrolytic manganese in September, with an increase of 1064 tons compared to the previous month. "check the details.

[SMM research: metal silicon price repeatedly brushes new high downstream aluminum alloy enterprise's silicon inventory situation] the metal silicon market rises continuously for many days, constantly refreshes the historical high price, at the same time, the aluminum and silicon price difference has also experienced the process from positive to negative, downstream aluminum alloy enterprises are under pressure. Take the commonly used 44% silicon as an example. East China oxygenated 44% silicon was 28250 yuan / ton on Sept. 7, up 66% from the previous month. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: the new energy vehicle market continues to be hot and battery factories have a close plan to expand production] in the first half of 2021, domestic new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.007 million, an increase of 220.9% over the same period last year. China once again surpassed Europe to become the world's largest new energy vehicle market. According to SMM, in July 2021, the best-selling models in China are Macro mini, ideal ONE, BYD Han, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla Model3 and so on. Among them. "View details

[SMM analysis: what is the impact of Luo Mo's planned suspension of production and overhaul in the second half of this month on the molybdenum city in September? At present, affected by the weak ferromolybdenum market, the market wait-and-see mentality has increased, and a number of steel mills have chosen to postpone the bidding, but the bidding will still be carried out in September. SMM believes that there may be a significant increase in ferromolybdenum demand in the middle and second half of this month. As Luo Mo stops production and overhauls and Fengning Mine is still likely to stop production due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the domestic molybdenum market price may rise sharply in mid-late September. "View details

[SMM Daily Review: activity of inquiry for mainstream rare earth oxides slightly improved transaction] on Tuesday, the rare earth market continued to be quiet, while the activity of inquiry for mainstream rare earth oxides increased slightly, and the transaction was still bleak. In terms of light rare earths, the mainstream turnover of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 595000 yuan / ton today, which is slightly higher than last week's 593000 yuan / ton. metal factories have recently received orders from magnetic materials enterprises in October, starting gradual procurement, and most of the suppliers are more stable. Traders said that low-cost supplies are difficult to find. "check the details.

Important news of metals and industry

[GE Honglin: science controls the carbon reduction path of metal commodities] at present, metal commodities have become the social focus of the "double carbon" goal, after all, they consume too much energy. For example, iron and steel, copper and aluminum and other smelting energy consumption has accounted for 14% of the country's total energy consumption. Electrolytic aluminum accounts for 6.7% of the country's total power consumption. In 2019, China's carbon emissions of electrolytic aluminum were 430 million tons, accounting for 5% of the country's total carbon emissions. The current problem is not the question of whether or not to be healthy, but the question of how to fall well and quickly.

[Prominent Hill copper and gold mine suspended in OZ Minerals] OZ Minerals said on Monday that operations at its Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in South Australia were suspended after the death of an underground worker over the weekend. "View details

[China Gold Group Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou region Mineral Resources Development Ecological damage problem is prominent] in August 2021, the Seventh Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision Group of the Central Committee inspected China Gold Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as China Gold). Of the 13 mining enterprises located in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou provinces (regions), 9 are missing their main responsibility. There are some problems, such as ecological destruction, environmental pollution, environmental risks and so on.

[Jintian Copper plans to invest 1.35 billion to build a high-performance and high-precision copper alloy strip project with an annual output of 120000 tons] Jintian Copper announced that with the development of the global economy, the demand for high-end copper strip is showing a good development trend. Ningbo Jintian Copper Co., Ltd. seizes the opportunity and plans to further develop the South China market and enhance the production capacity of high-precision copper strip products to better meet the market needs of South China and Southeast Asia. Enhance the core competitiveness of the company. Guangdong Jintian New Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest 1.35 billion yuan to build a high-performance and high-precision copper alloy strip project with an annual output of 120000 tons in Zhaoqing, Guangdong.

[environmental protection] according to the latest understanding of SMM, many problems have been found in a smelter in central China because of the arrival of the sixth eco-environmental protection inspection team of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China. However, as far as we know, it has not stopped production, but has adopted the way of reducing production to control pollution, and its electrolytic copper production is expected to drop by 10% and 20% in September.

Fly! Double coke re-brushing historic high coking coal coke soared 77.5% and 30.34% respectively this year.] the NDRC sent a letter condemning some enterprises for taking the lead in price increases, which did not stop the double coke from galloping. After yesterday's surge, today it brushed an all-time high again, approaching the limit of price increase! By the end of the day, the main force of coking coal rose 7.37%, expanding to 77.5% for the year, and 7.28% for coke, expanding to 30.34% for the year. Dancing with it is today's coal mining, the steel industry stock market plate rose collectively, ranking in the top two of today's list of gains. Among them, coal mining and separation plate cloud coal energy, Shanxi coking, Pingshan coal shares, Shanxi coking coal, Shanxi control coal industry, Xinji energy seal the trading board. "View details

[the company raised the handling fee rates for coking coal and coke related contracts] according to the announcement, it has been decided to adjust the handling fee rates for coking coal and coke related contracts from the time of trading on Thursday, September 9 (that is, the night trading section of September 8).

[SMM News] the emergency management department of Shanxi Province ordered the company to stop production and carry out rectification for not less than one month from now on. Revoke the first-class standardization grade of Wangjialing Mine of Shanxi China Coal Huajin Energy Co., Ltd. Wangjialing produces high-quality, high-strength, low-sulfur lean main coking coal.

General Administration of Customs: China's steel exports were 5.053 million tons in August, an increase of 37.3% over the same period last year, and 645.8 in July, with a cumulative export volume of 36.553 million tons from January to August, an increase of 31.6% over the same period last year. In August, China imported 97.492 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, down 2.9 per cent from a year earlier, while imports rose 10.2 per cent month-on-month to 746.454 million tons from January to August, down 1.7 per cent from a year earlier. "View details

[general Administration of Customs: the total value of Sino-US trade in the first eight months was 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.8%. According to the General Administration of Customs, imports and exports to major trading partners such as ASEAN, the European Union and the United States have all increased. In the first eight months, the United States was China's third largest trading partner. The total value of trade between China and the United States was 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.8 percent, accounting for 12.3 percent. Of this total, exports to the United States totaled 2.29 trillion yuan, up 22.7 percent; imports from the United States totaled 752.42 billion yuan, up 36.5 percent; and the trade surplus with the United States totaled 1.54 trillion yuan, up 16.9 percent.

The limit is all over the screen! The lithium battery plate has not seen the "rising and stopping tide" for a long time, and the new leader of the lithium mine was born? SMM Sept. 7: at the start of trading today, the lithium battery plate rose sharply after opening today after a shock correction a few days ago, and the lithium battery index rose more than 3% at one point in intraday trading. By the close, lithium battery stocks once again appeared a long-lost "full screen limit" grand occasion. New Zebang, Shi Da Shenghua, Yongtai Technology, Jiangsu Cathay Pacific and other nearly 17 shares rose by the daily limit. "View details

[inner Mongolia plans to arrange 10 million kilowatts of centralized wind and photovoltaic power projects this year] according to the notice of Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau on matters related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021, Inner Mongolia will promote the construction of a number of centralized wind power and photovoltaic power grid-connected projects. In 2021, 3.8 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic power generation projects will be arranged, including 3.3 million kilowatts in western Mongolia and 500000 kilowatts in eastern Mongolia, and 6.2 million kilowatts in new centralized wind power projects, including 4.4 million kilowatts in western Mongolia and 1.8 million kilowatts in eastern Mongolia.

According to SMM, Luoyang Molybdenum Ferromolybdenum Factory will carry out routine maintenance around September 20, which is expected to last about 20 days. At that time, the supply of ferromolybdenum in the market will be greatly reduced, and ferromolybdenum prices will rise in mid-late September.

Terminal information

[Bancassurance Regulatory Commission: as of the end of July, real estate financing showed "five sustained declines"] the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission said that as of the end of July, real estate financing showed "five sustained declines". First, the growth rate of real estate loans hit an eight-year low, and banking real estate loans increased by 8.7% year-on-year, which was 3 percentage points lower than the growth rate of various loans. Second, the concentration of real estate loans has declined for 10 consecutive months, and the proportion of real estate loans in all kinds of loans has dropped by 0.95% compared with the same period last year. Third, the scale of real estate trust has continued to decline since June 2019, and the balance of real estate trust has dropped by about 15% compared with the same period last year. Fourth, the scale of financial products invested in non-standard assets of real estate has continued to decline over the past year, and the balance of related financial products has dropped by 42% compared with the same period last year. Fifth, the scale of banks' investment in the real estate sector through special purpose carriers has continued to decline for 18 consecutive months, and the scale of related business has dropped by 27% compared with the same period last year.

[Hohhot rectification of the real estate market: cracking down on false discounts, bundled sales] "Hohhot real estate market promotion action work plan" was officially issued on August 31. Hohhot Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that the "plan" focuses on optimizing the land supply structure, speeding up the examination and approval of construction projects, strengthening project quality management, cracking down on chaos in the sales market, standardizing the real estate delivery process, and improving the speed of real estate certification.

[LG Energy solution is developing Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries will be sold mainly to China] according to foreign media reports, LG Chemical subsidiary LG Energy Solutions has begun to develop its own lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, and the new products will be mainly sold to Chinese enterprises. LG Energy Solutions has begun to develop LFP batteries in its laboratory in Daejeon (Daejeon), South Korea. The company plans to set up a trial production line for LFP batteries as early as next year. It is reported that LG's LFP battery will be in the form of a soft package, rather than the square or cylindrical form commonly used by Chinese battery manufacturers.

According to foreign media reports, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Ford, Renault and other companies are still struggling to cope with the impact of the global chip shortage. Some company executives said at the Munich auto show that the global shortage of semiconductors is likely to persist in 2022 and may not be resolved until 2023.

[Hyundai plans to use internal R & D chips in its new cars] according to foreign media reports, South Korea's Hyundai plans to use internally developed car chips on a new car to be launched next year. Hyundai plans to develop power chips based on silicon carbide technology internally, the report quoted an industry source who spoke on condition of anonymity. Hyundai Automotive Research Center and its auto parts subsidiary Hyundai Mobis led the chip design process and worked with a number of companies, including system chip maker Magnachip Semiconductor, the report said.

[BMW has signed nearly $24 billion battery orders from suppliers including Ningde Times and Yiwei LiNeng] recently, BMW has continued to increase battery orders to keep up with the growth in demand for electric vehicles. It is reported that in the first half of this year, the company's electric vehicle delivery accounted for more than 11%. BMW CEO Oliver Zipse said in an interview that the company's current battery contract is worth more than 20 billion euros ($23.8 billion), up from 12 billion euros previously.